Business owners often delay major decisions, waiting for ideal market conditions, but timing the market perfectly is impossible—and costly.

“I’ll sell when the market improves.” “We’ll acquire that competitor when their industry stabilises.” “Once interest rates come down, we’ll explore our options.” These common refrains reflect a fundamental misunderstanding about business transaction timing. While market conditions matter, they’re just one factor in a complex equation that includes personal circumstances, business performance, industry trends, and opportunity costs.

The Cost of Waiting

Every month you delay a decision is a month of potential opportunity lost. Business values fluctuate, but they also age. A profitable business today might face new competition tomorrow. A strategic acquisition target available now might be purchased by someone else next year. Market conditions that seem unfavourable today might actually represent opportunities for savvy buyers or sellers who act decisively.

Consider the business owner who planned to sell in early 2020, then postponed due to pandemic uncertainty. While some businesses thrived during COVID, others never recovered to pre-pandemic valuations. Meanwhile, life circumstances—health issues, family needs, partner disagreements—don’t wait for perfect market timing.

Personal Readiness Often Matters More

The best time to sell your business might have nothing to do with market conditions. Perhaps you’re burned out and your declining engagement is starting to affect performance. Maybe you have a health scare that puts life in perspective. Or your spouse retires and you want to travel together while you’re both healthy. These personal factors often matter more than whether it’s a “seller’s market” or “buyer’s market.”

Similarly, acquisition opportunities often arise based on the seller’s circumstances rather than broad market conditions. A competitor might need to sell due to family issues, health problems, or retirement plans that have nothing to do with industry conditions.

Opportunity Cost Analysis

Instead of waiting for perfect conditions, smart business owners analyse opportunity costs. What are you giving up by waiting? If you’re 62 and want to retire at 65, waiting two years for “better” market conditions might mean working until 67 to achieve the same financial outcome. If a strategic acquisition could double your market share, waiting for slightly better pricing might cost you a competitive advantage that’s worth more than the savings.

Market Timing Myths:

• “Interest rates are too high” (but seller financing can bridge the gap)
• “The economy is uncertain” (uncertainty creates opportunities for prepared buyers)
• “Valuations are down” (which might make it a great time to acquire)
• “It’s not a seller’s market” (but the right buyer will pay for the right business)

The Smart Approach:

Focus on your goals, circumstances, and business performance rather than trying to time markets. Work with an experienced broker who can help you understand current conditions while developing strategies that work regardless of market timing.